Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Manaphy's top six counters needs 3.77 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.52 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 17:22. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Manaphy · Elite

water

Weak to

grasselectric

Boss CP: 47,729
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Manaphy at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	6(5.19)	6(5.92)	7(6.67)	27:14	6.0
Level 25	5(4.53)	5(4.80)	6(5.70)	22:05	6.0
Level 30	5(4.04)	5(4.18)	5(4.99)	19:15	6.0
Level 35	4(3.77)	4(3.96)	5(4.72)	18:14	6.0
Level 40	4(3.58)	4(3.77)	5(4.52)	17:22	6.0
Level 45	4(3.47)	4(3.63)	5(4.36)	16:41	6.0
Level 50	4(3.39)	4(3.48)	5(4.25)	16:02	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Kartana3.58

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Kartana3.58
Regieleki3.67
Zeraora3.78
Xurkitree3.81
Shaymin (Sky)3.87
Zekrom3.93

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (Black)4.34
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)4.37
Electivire4.39
Roserade4.48
Tapu Bulu4.48
Decidueye4.53

The party these numbers assume

1. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

2. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

3. Zeraora

Volt Switch + Plasma Fists

4. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

5. Shaymin (Sky)

Magical Leaf + Grass Knot

6. Zekrom

Charge Beam + Fusion Bolt

See the full ranked counter list for Manaphy · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.