Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Manaphy's top six counters needs 2.22 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.67 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 10:12. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Manaphy · Tier 5

water

Weak to

grasselectric

Boss CP: 41,335
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Manaphy at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.45)	4(3.28)	4(3.92)	15:05	6.0
Level 25	3(2.91)	3(2.80)	4(3.36)	12:54	6.0
Level 30	3(2.40)	3(2.46)	3(2.94)	11:19	6.0
Level 35	3(2.21)	3(2.32)	3(2.78)	10:39	6.0
Level 40	3(2.18)	3(2.22)	3(2.67)	10:12	5.9
Level 45	3(2.03)	3(2.12)	3(2.58)	9:45	5.9
Level 50	2(1.88)	3(2.03)	3(2.51)	9:20	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Regieleki2.18

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Regieleki2.18
Kartana2.17
Thundurus (Therian)2.20
Xurkitree2.23
Zeraora2.25
Zekrom2.27

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Raikou2.53
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.52
Electivire2.55
Roserade2.67
Sceptile2.66
Magnezone2.68

The party these numbers assume

1. Regieleki

Lock-On + Thunder Cage

2. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

3. Thundurus (Therian)

Volt Switch + Wildbolt Storm

4. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

5. Zeraora

Spark + Plasma Fists

6. Zekrom

Charge Beam + Fusion Bolt

See the full ranked counter list for Manaphy · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.