Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Malamar's top six counters needs 1.09 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.29 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 5:05. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 20.

Mega Malamar · Mega

darkpsychic

Weak to

bugfairy

Boss CP: 32,568
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Malamar at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.58)	2(1.56)	2(1.87)	7:16	6.0
Level 25	2(1.30)	2(1.33)	2(1.61)	6:12	6.0
Level 30	2(1.14)	2(1.18)	2(1.43)	5:30	6.0
Level 35	2(1.10)	2(1.14)	2(1.35)	5:17	6.0
Level 40	2(1.03)	2(1.09)	2(1.29)	5:05	6.0
Level 45	2(1.01)	2(1.04)	2(1.24)	4:50	5.9
Level 50	1(0.98)	2(1.01)	2(1.20)	4:41	5.8

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Volcarona1.03

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Volcarona1.03
Kartana1.08
Genesect1.11
Genesect (Burn)1.11
Genesect (Chill)1.11
Genesect (Douse)1.11

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Heracross1.16
Yanmega1.21
Golisopod1.23
Centiskorch1.24
Escavalier1.25
Scyther1.26

The party these numbers assume

1. Volcarona

Bug Bite + Bug Buzz

2. Kartana

Fury Cutter + X-Scissor

3. Genesect

Fury Cutter + X-Scissor

4. Genesect (Burn)

Fury Cutter + X-Scissor

5. Genesect (Chill)

Fury Cutter + X-Scissor

6. Genesect (Douse)

Fury Cutter + X-Scissor

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Malamar · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.