Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Malamar's top six counters needs 0.46 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.55 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:20. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Malamar · Tier 3

darkpsychic

Weak to

bugfairy

Boss CP: 15,455
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Malamar at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.72)	1(0.68)	1(0.80)	1:59	5.2
Level 25	1(0.64)	1(0.59)	1(0.68)	1:44	4.2
Level 30	1(0.49)	1(0.51)	1(0.60)	1:30	3.2
Level 35	1(0.43)	1(0.48)	1(0.58)	1:25	2.8
Level 40	1(0.40)	1(0.46)	1(0.55)	1:20	2.5
Level 45	1(0.40)	1(0.45)	1(0.53)	1:19	2.3
Level 50	1(0.38)	1(0.43)	1(0.51)	1:16	2.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Pheromosa0.40

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Pheromosa0.40
Volcarona0.46
Kartana0.46
Vikavolt0.47
Kleavor0.48
Heracross0.47

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Scizor0.51
Yanmega0.52
Centiskorch0.53
Frosmoth0.54
Escavalier0.54
Golisopod0.54

The party these numbers assume

1. Pheromosa

Bug Bite + Bug Buzz

2. Volcarona

Bug Bite + Bug Buzz

3. Kartana

Fury Cutter + X-Scissor

4. Vikavolt

Bug Bite + X-Scissor

5. Kleavor

Fury Cutter + X-Scissor

6. Heracross

Fury Cutter + Megahorn

See the full ranked counter list for Malamar · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.