Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Machop's top six counters needs 1.57 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.85 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:26. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Machop · Shadow Tier 5

fighting

Weak to

flyingpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 18,334
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Machop at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.04)	3(2.19)	3(2.58)	10:20	5.4
Level 25	2(1.79)	2(1.90)	3(2.24)	8:57	4.9
Level 30	2(1.59)	2(1.72)	3(2.02)	8:06	4.4
Level 35	2(1.53)	2(1.64)	2(1.92)	7:44	4.2
Level 40	2(1.45)	2(1.57)	2(1.85)	7:26	4.0
Level 45	2(1.42)	2(1.52)	2(1.78)	7:11	3.6
Level 50	2(1.39)	2(1.47)	2(1.73)	6:58	3.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza1.45

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza1.45
Mewtwo1.50
Enamorus (Incarnate)1.54
Hoopa (Unbound)1.64
Tapu Lele1.64
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.67

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Toucannon1.78
Hoopa1.81
Alakazam1.83
Lunala1.84
Lugia1.85
Staraptor1.85

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Mewtwo

Confusion + Psystrike

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

5. Tapu Lele

Confusion + Nature's Madness

6. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

See the full ranked counter list for Machop · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.