Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Machop's top six counters needs 1.47 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.74 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 6:46. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Machop · Elite

fighting

Weak to

flyingpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 21,171
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Machop at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.92)	3(2.04)	3(2.42)	9:24	5.4
Level 25	2(1.67)	2(1.79)	3(2.11)	8:15	5.0
Level 30	2(1.51)	2(1.62)	2(1.90)	7:27	4.4
Level 35	2(1.43)	2(1.55)	2(1.81)	7:08	4.2
Level 40	2(1.37)	2(1.47)	2(1.74)	6:46	4.1
Level 45	2(1.32)	2(1.42)	2(1.69)	6:33	3.6
Level 50	2(1.28)	2(1.38)	2(1.62)	6:22	3.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza1.37

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza1.37
Mewtwo1.40
Enamorus (Incarnate)1.43
Hoopa (Unbound)1.51
Tapu Lele1.55
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.57

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Toucannon1.67
Hoopa1.70
Alakazam1.71
Lunala1.72
Lugia1.73
Salamence1.73

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

5. Tapu Lele

Confusion + Nature's Madness

6. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

See the full ranked counter list for Machop · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.