Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Machop's top six counters needs 0.88 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.04 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 4:04. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 30. A duo works from level 20.

Machop · Tier 5

fighting

Weak to

flyingpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 18,334
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Machop at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.15)	2(1.22)	2(1.43)	5:38	5.6
Level 25	1(0.97)	2(1.06)	2(1.26)	4:54	4.8
Level 30	1(0.90)	1(0.97)	2(1.13)	4:27	4.0
Level 35	1(0.85)	1(0.92)	2(1.08)	4:13	3.5
Level 40	1(0.83)	1(0.88)	2(1.04)	4:04	3.3
Level 45	1(0.79)	1(0.85)	2(1.00)	3:55	2.9
Level 50	1(0.77)	1(0.83)	1(0.97)	3:49	2.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Rayquaza0.83

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Rayquaza0.83
Mewtwo0.83
Enamorus (Incarnate)0.87
Hoopa (Unbound)0.89
Tapu Lele0.93
Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.95

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Toucannon1.00
Alakazam1.03
Hoopa1.03
Salamence1.03
Lunala1.04
Staraptor1.04

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Mewtwo

Confusion + Psystrike

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

5. Tapu Lele

Confusion + Nature's Madness

6. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Air Slash + Play Rough

See the full ranked counter list for Machop · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.