Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Lycanroc (Midnight)'s top six counters needs 0.47 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.62 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:22. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Lycanroc (Midnight) · Tier 3

rock

Weak to

fightinggroundsteelwatergrass

Boss CP: 18,066
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Lycanroc (Midnight) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.55)	1(0.65)	1(0.88)	1:54	3.9
Level 25	1(0.50)	1(0.56)	1(0.76)	1:39	2.8
Level 30	1(0.44)	1(0.50)	1(0.68)	1:29	2.1
Level 35	1(0.44)	1(0.48)	1(0.65)	1:25	1.8
Level 40	1(0.43)	1(0.47)	1(0.62)	1:22	1.5
Level 45	1(0.39)	1(0.45)	1(0.60)	1:19	1.4
Level 50	1(0.37)	1(0.44)	1(0.58)	1:16	1.2

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.43

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.43
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)0.43
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)0.43
Keldeo0.47
Lucario0.52
Kartana0.53

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Kyogre0.61
Groudon0.61
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.61
Hisuian Decidueye0.62
Xurkitree0.61
Conkeldurr0.62

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

5. Lucario

Force Palm + Aura Sphere

6. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Sacred Sword

See the full ranked counter list for Lycanroc (Midnight) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.