Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 8 to be safe — 6 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Lugia's top six counters needs 5.33 trainers (round up: 6), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 7.40 (round up: 8). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 25:11. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Lugia · Shadow Tier 5

psychicflying

Weak to

rockghostelectricicedark

Boss CP: 45,925
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Lugia at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	8(7.58)	9(8.62)	11(10.76)	40:43	6.0
Level 25	7(6.24)	8(7.05)	10(9.27)	33:18	6.0
Level 30	6(5.64)	7(6.00)	9(8.19)	28:21	6.0
Level 35	6(5.14)	6(5.60)	8(7.79)	26:28	6.0
Level 40	5(4.84)	6(5.33)	8(7.40)	25:11	6.0
Level 45	5(4.65)	6(5.16)	8(7.13)	24:21	6.0
Level 50	5(4.55)	5(4.89)	7(6.92)	23:05	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

5 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)4.84

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

6 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)4.84
Kyurem (Black)4.91
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)5.01
Xurkitree5.59
Zeraora5.81
Zekrom5.83

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

8 trainers at level 40

Giratina (Origin)6.17
Eternatus6.17
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)6.32
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)6.31
Hydreigon6.27
Tyrantrum6.64

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

3. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

4. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

5. Zeraora

Volt Switch + Plasma Fists

6. Zekrom

Charge Beam + Fusion Bolt

See the full ranked counter list for Lugia · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.