Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 7 to be safe — 6 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Lugia's top six counters needs 5.03 trainers (round up: 6), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 6.31 (round up: 7). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 23:08. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Lugia · Elite

psychicflying

Weak to

rockghostelectricicedark

Boss CP: 53,029
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Lugia at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	8(7.05)	9(8.55)	10(9.84)	39:21	6.0
Level 25	7(6.25)	7(6.88)	8(7.94)	31:40	6.0
Level 30	6(5.70)	6(5.85)	7(6.97)	26:54	6.0
Level 35	5(4.75)	6(5.31)	7(6.58)	24:27	6.0
Level 40	5(4.48)	6(5.03)	7(6.31)	23:08	6.0
Level 45	5(4.39)	5(4.90)	7(6.03)	22:32	6.0
Level 50	5(4.15)	5(4.63)	6(5.79)	21:17	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

5 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)4.48

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

6 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)4.48
Kyurem (White)4.57
Kyurem (Black)4.79
Xurkitree5.35
Zeraora5.46
Thundurus (Therian)5.54

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

7 trainers at level 40

Darkrai6.08
Giratina (Origin)6.12
Regieleki6.13
Hydreigon6.10
Electivire6.20
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)6.26

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

3. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

4. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

5. Zeraora

Volt Switch + Plasma Fists

6. Thundurus (Therian)

Volt Switch + Wildbolt Storm

See the full ranked counter list for Lugia · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.