Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Ledyba's top six counters needs 1.64 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.02 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:44. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Ledyba · Shadow Tier 5

bugflying

Weak to

rockflyingfireelectricice

Boss CP: 12,288
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Ledyba at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.12)	3(2.23)	3(2.76)	10:33	5.3
Level 25	2(1.86)	2(1.98)	3(2.44)	9:21	4.5
Level 30	2(1.72)	2(1.79)	3(2.20)	8:27	3.8
Level 35	2(1.62)	2(1.72)	3(2.10)	8:06	3.5
Level 40	2(1.54)	2(1.64)	3(2.02)	7:44	3.3
Level 45	2(1.47)	2(1.58)	2(1.95)	7:27	3.0
Level 50	2(1.46)	2(1.53)	2(1.89)	7:13	2.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Glimmora1.54

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Glimmora1.54
Rampardos1.54
Tyrantrum1.64
Rhyperior1.66
Gigalith1.70
Terrakion1.72

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Regieleki1.96
Aggron1.96
Aerodactyl1.97
Rayquaza1.98
Aurorus1.98
Archeops1.99

The party these numbers assume

1. Glimmora

Rock Throw + Meteor Beam

2. Rampardos

Smack Down + Rock Slide

3. Tyrantrum

Rock Throw + Meteor Beam

4. Rhyperior

Smack Down + Rock Wrecker

5. Gigalith

Lock-On + Meteor Beam

6. Terrakion

Smack Down + Rock Slide

See the full ranked counter list for Ledyba · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.