Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Larvesta's top six counters needs 0.86 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.11 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 3:58. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 30. A duo works from level 20.

Larvesta · Tier 5

bugfire

Weak to

rockflyingwater

Boss CP: 23,132
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Larvesta at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.14)	2(1.22)	2(1.57)	5:38	5.9
Level 25	2(1.02)	2(1.06)	2(1.35)	4:53	5.6
Level 30	1(0.92)	1(0.96)	2(1.21)	4:24	4.9
Level 35	1(0.85)	1(0.90)	2(1.16)	4:09	4.6
Level 40	1(0.81)	1(0.86)	2(1.11)	3:58	4.2
Level 45	1(0.78)	1(0.83)	2(1.07)	3:49	3.9
Level 50	1(0.76)	1(0.81)	2(1.03)	3:43	3.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Rampardos0.81

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Rampardos0.81
Glimmora0.81
Rhyperior0.88
Terrakion0.89
Gigalith0.90
Tyrantrum0.89

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Aggron1.06
Archeops1.06
Aurorus1.07
Landorus (Incarnate)1.08
Lycanroc (Midnight)1.09
Omastar1.11

The party these numbers assume

1. Rampardos

Smack Down + Rock Slide

2. Glimmora

Rock Throw + Meteor Beam

3. Rhyperior

Smack Down + Rock Wrecker

4. Terrakion

Smack Down + Rock Slide

5. Gigalith

Lock-On + Meteor Beam

6. Tyrantrum

Rock Throw + Meteor Beam

See the full ranked counter list for Larvesta · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.