Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Primal Kyogre's top six counters needs 1.83 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.22 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 8:30. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 35.

Primal Kyogre · Mega

water

Weak to

grasselectric

Boss CP: 58,730
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Primal Kyogre at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.70)	3(2.85)	4(3.36)	13:15	6.0
Level 25	3(2.37)	3(2.42)	3(2.85)	11:14	6.0
Level 30	3(2.05)	3(2.09)	3(2.49)	9:44	6.0
Level 35	2(1.89)	2(1.95)	3(2.32)	9:05	6.0
Level 40	2(1.79)	2(1.83)	3(2.22)	8:30	6.0
Level 45	2(1.74)	2(1.76)	3(2.14)	8:11	6.0
Level 50	2(1.63)	2(1.69)	3(2.05)	7:52	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.79

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.79
Zeraora1.80
Regieleki1.81
Zarude1.83
Eternatus1.86
Xurkitree1.90

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Thundurus (Therian)2.07
Shaymin (Sky)2.12
Chesnaught2.18
Tapu Bulu2.20
Electivire2.19
Venusaur2.22

The party these numbers assume

1. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

2. Zeraora

Volt Switch + Plasma Fists

3. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

4. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

5. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

6. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

See the full ranked counter list for Primal Kyogre · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.