Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 6 to be safe — 5 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Kyogre's top six counters needs 4.63 trainers (round up: 5), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 5.62 (round up: 6). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 21:52. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Kyogre · Shadow Tier 5

water

Weak to

grasselectric

Boss CP: 54,411
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Kyogre at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	8(7.20)	8(7.37)	9(8.60)	34:49	6.0
Level 25	7(6.36)	7(6.14)	8(7.49)	28:59	6.0
Level 30	6(5.24)	6(5.28)	7(6.57)	24:56	6.0
Level 35	6(5.01)	5(4.96)	7(6.04)	23:26	6.0
Level 40	5(4.52)	5(4.63)	6(5.62)	21:52	6.0
Level 45	5(4.30)	5(4.43)	6(5.36)	20:56	6.0
Level 50	4(3.98)	5(4.24)	6(5.18)	20:02	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

5 trainers at level 40

Zeraora4.52

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

5 trainers at level 40

Zeraora4.52
Regieleki4.59
Zarude4.61
Zekrom4.65
Kartana4.74
Xurkitree4.67

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

6 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)5.34
Thundurus (Therian)5.45
Electivire5.47
Regigigas5.49
Tapu Bulu5.56
Zapdos5.65

The party these numbers assume

1. Zeraora

Spark + Plasma Fists

2. Regieleki

Lock-On + Thunder Cage

3. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

4. Zekrom

Charge Beam + Fusion Bolt

5. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

6. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Power Whip

See the full ranked counter list for Kyogre · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.