Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Joltik's top six counters needs 1.97 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.26 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:18. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 40.

Joltik · Shadow Tier 5

bugelectric

Weak to

rockfire

Boss CP: 16,274
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Joltik at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.40)	3(2.76)	4(3.19)	13:03	5.8
Level 25	3(2.02)	3(2.41)	3(2.78)	11:24	5.5
Level 30	2(1.78)	3(2.16)	3(2.47)	10:11	5.1
Level 35	2(1.67)	3(2.08)	3(2.37)	9:51	4.9
Level 40	2(1.60)	2(1.97)	3(2.26)	9:18	4.6
Level 45	2(1.53)	2(1.92)	3(2.20)	9:03	4.5
Level 50	2(1.48)	2(1.86)	3(2.12)	8:47	4.3

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.60

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.60
Reshiram1.84
Cinderace2.08
Chandelure2.07
Heatran2.10
Eternatus2.12

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Darmanitan (Standard)2.19
Gigalith2.23
Kyurem (White)2.22
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.25
Emboar2.25
Delphox2.25

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

3. Cinderace

Fire Spin + Pyroball

4. Chandelure

Fire Spin + Overheat

5. Heatran

Fire Spin + Magma Storm

6. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Joltik · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.