Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Hitmonchan's top six counters needs 3.52 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.13 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 16:37. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Hitmonchan · Shadow Tier 5

fighting

Weak to

flyingpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 37,091
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Hitmonchan at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.54)	6(5.12)	7(6.02)	24:11	6.0
Level 25	4(3.98)	5(4.31)	6(5.10)	20:23	6.0
Level 30	4(3.64)	4(3.83)	5(4.59)	18:04	6.0
Level 35	4(3.31)	4(3.63)	5(4.29)	17:10	6.0
Level 40	4(3.20)	4(3.52)	5(4.13)	16:37	5.9
Level 45	4(3.10)	4(3.39)	4(3.96)	16:02	5.9
Level 50	4(3.01)	4(3.26)	4(3.84)	15:25	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Mewtwo3.20

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Mewtwo3.20
Rayquaza3.39
Enamorus (Incarnate)3.53
Hoopa (Unbound)3.57
Galarian Articuno3.70
Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.72

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Toucannon3.98
Salamence4.07
Hoopa4.07
Eternatus4.08
Lunala4.08
Lugia4.11

The party these numbers assume

1. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

2. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

5. Galarian Articuno

Psycho Cut + Fly

6. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Play Rough

See the full ranked counter list for Hitmonchan · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.