Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Heracross's top six counters needs 2.63 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.44 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 12:06. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Heracross · Super Mega

bugfighting

Weak to

flyingfirepsychicfairy

Boss CP: 85,130
Boss HP: 25,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Heracross at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.49)	5(4.21)	6(5.42)	19:21	6.0
Level 25	3(2.84)	4(3.39)	5(4.39)	15:37	6.0
Level 30	3(2.52)	3(2.98)	4(3.85)	13:42	6.0
Level 35	3(2.40)	3(2.77)	4(3.62)	12:46	6.0
Level 40	3(2.24)	3(2.63)	4(3.44)	12:06	6.0
Level 45	3(2.17)	3(2.52)	4(3.30)	11:37	6.0
Level 50	3(2.08)	3(2.42)	4(3.17)	11:08	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza2.24

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza2.24
Moltres2.64
Enamorus (Incarnate)2.64
Yveltal2.73
Toucannon2.78
Galarian Articuno2.75

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Lugia3.11
Galarian Moltres3.21
Zapdos3.29
Galarian Zapdos3.31
Flamigo3.38
Tornadus (Incarnate)3.40

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Moltres

Wing Attack + Fly

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Yveltal

Gust + Oblivion Wing

5. Toucannon

Peck + Beak Blast

6. Galarian Articuno

Psycho Cut + Fly

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Heracross · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.