Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Heracross's top six counters needs 2.34 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.06 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 10:53. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Heracross · Mega Legendary

bugfighting

Weak to

flyingfirepsychicfairy

Boss CP: 80,761
Boss HP: 22,500
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Heracross at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.12)	4(3.74)	5(4.81)	17:24	6.0
Level 25	3(2.54)	4(3.02)	4(3.90)	14:01	6.0
Level 30	3(2.25)	3(2.65)	4(3.42)	12:19	6.0
Level 35	3(2.14)	3(2.47)	4(3.22)	11:30	6.0
Level 40	2(1.99)	3(2.34)	4(3.06)	10:53	6.0
Level 45	2(1.93)	3(2.25)	3(2.93)	10:28	6.0
Level 50	2(1.85)	3(2.16)	3(2.82)	10:02	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza1.99

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza1.99
Moltres2.36
Enamorus (Incarnate)2.33
Yveltal2.43
Galarian Articuno2.45
Toucannon2.49

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Lugia2.80
Galarian Moltres2.86
Zapdos2.92
Flamigo2.97
Galarian Zapdos2.96
Tornadus (Incarnate)3.04

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Moltres

Wing Attack + Fly

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Yveltal

Gust + Oblivion Wing

5. Galarian Articuno

Psycho Cut + Fly

6. Toucannon

Peck + Beak Blast

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Heracross · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.