Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Hawlucha's top six counters needs 3.43 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.01 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 15:47. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Hawlucha · Super Mega

fightingflying

Weak to

flyingelectricpsychicicefairy

Boss CP: 70,275
Boss HP: 25,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Hawlucha at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.88)	6(5.72)	6(5.94)	26:18	6.0
Level 25	5(4.22)	5(4.94)	6(5.02)	22:45	6.0
Level 30	4(3.63)	4(3.99)	5(4.42)	18:21	6.0
Level 35	4(3.47)	4(3.77)	5(4.19)	17:22	6.0
Level 40	4(3.29)	4(3.43)	5(4.01)	15:47	6.0
Level 45	4(3.19)	4(3.33)	4(3.82)	15:18	6.0
Level 50	4(3.07)	4(3.23)	4(3.70)	14:51	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza3.29

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza3.29
Kyurem (White)3.30
Mewtwo3.37
Enamorus (Incarnate)3.48
Kyurem (Black)3.53
Regieleki3.62

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Moltres3.87
Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.90
Hoopa (Unbound)3.92
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.97
Yveltal3.97
Zekrom3.99

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

3. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

4. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

5. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

6. Regieleki

Lock-On + Thunder Cage

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Hawlucha · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.