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PoGoBud
Raid Hour · YveltalNext · 20h 36m

Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Gyarados's top six counters needs 2.26 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.13 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 10:24. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.
Gyarados · Elite
waterflying
Weak to
electricrock
Boss CP
50,525
Boss HP
20,000
Raid timer
300s
Party used
6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Gyarados at each attacker level
Attacker levelSix of the best counterA prepared partyA mixed local groupPrepared solo timeFaints per timer
Level 204(3.58)4(3.80)6(5.04)17:306.0
Level 254(3.04)4(3.11)5(4.07)14:186.0
Level 303(2.40)3(2.63)4(3.55)12:076.0
Level 353(2.27)3(2.44)4(3.33)11:156.0
Level 403(2.11)3(2.26)4(3.13)10:246.0
Level 453(2.00)3(2.17)4(3.00)9:596.0
Level 502(1.93)3(2.06)3(2.90)9:306.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

  • Zeraora2.11

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

  • Zeraora2.11
  • Thundurus (Therian)2.18
  • Xurkitree2.23
  • Zekrom2.24
  • Regieleki2.35
  • Raikou2.45

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

  • Pawmot2.85
  • Vikavolt2.93
  • Jolteon2.98
  • Mewtwo2.98
  • Kyurem (Black)3.01
  • Manectric3.14

The party these numbers assume

1. Zeraora
Volt Switch + Plasma Fists
2. Thundurus (Therian)
Volt Switch + Wildbolt Storm
3. Xurkitree
Thunder Shock + Discharge
4. Zekrom
Charge Beam + Fusion Bolt
5. Regieleki
Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage
6. Raikou
Thunder Shock + Wild Charge

See the full ranked counter list for Gyarados · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.