Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Flutter Mane's top six counters needs 3.32 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.62 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 15:17. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Flutter Mane · Elite

ghostfairy

Weak to

ghoststeel

Boss CP: 65,964
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Flutter Mane at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.01)	5(4.65)	7(6.34)	21:24	5.5
Level 25	4(3.45)	5(4.02)	6(5.52)	18:30	4.9
Level 30	4(3.22)	4(3.68)	5(4.98)	16:57	4.3
Level 35	3(2.94)	4(3.53)	5(4.76)	16:14	4.2
Level 40	3(2.87)	4(3.32)	5(4.62)	15:17	3.9
Level 45	3(2.80)	4(3.23)	5(4.45)	14:52	3.5
Level 50	3(2.74)	4(3.16)	5(4.32)	14:31	3.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.87

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.87
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.97
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.05
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.05
Blacephalon3.87
Kyurem (Black)4.10

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Gholdengo4.53
Lunala4.54
Dialga (Origin)4.55
Kyurem (White)4.59
Tinkaton4.59
Lucario4.60

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

3. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

4. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

5. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

6. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

See the full ranked counter list for Flutter Mane · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.