Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Flutter Mane's top six counters needs 2.01 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.77 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:15. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 45.

Flutter Mane · Tier 5

ghostfairy

Weak to

ghoststeel

Boss CP: 57,126
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Flutter Mane at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.42)	3(2.70)	4(3.73)	12:27	4.8
Level 25	3(2.11)	3(2.41)	4(3.33)	11:05	4.0
Level 30	2(1.97)	3(2.17)	4(3.00)	9:59	3.3
Level 35	2(1.90)	3(2.09)	3(2.89)	9:37	3.0
Level 40	2(1.77)	3(2.01)	3(2.77)	9:15	2.9
Level 45	2(1.73)	2(1.95)	3(2.71)	8:58	2.6
Level 50	2(1.70)	2(1.88)	3(2.63)	8:38	2.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.77

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.77
Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.77
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.81
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.86
Blacephalon2.36
Metagross2.50

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Gholdengo2.71
Tinkaton2.72
Hoopa2.74
Kyurem (White)2.75
Cursola2.76
Lucario2.76

The party these numbers assume

1. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

2. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

5. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

6. Metagross

Bullet Punch + Meteor Mash

See the full ranked counter list for Flutter Mane · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.