Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Flutter Mane's top six counters needs 0.69 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.97 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 2:02. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Flutter Mane · Tier 3

ghostfairy

Weak to

ghoststeel

Boss CP: 27,986
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Flutter Mane at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.80)	1(0.94)	2(1.30)	2:44	2.3
Level 25	1(0.70)	1(0.82)	2(1.14)	2:25	1.5
Level 30	1(0.64)	1(0.76)	2(1.05)	2:13	1.2
Level 35	1(0.63)	1(0.73)	2(1.01)	2:08	1.0
Level 40	1(0.61)	1(0.69)	1(0.97)	2:02	0.7
Level 45	1(0.61)	1(0.69)	1(0.93)	2:00	0.7
Level 50	1(0.56)	1(0.66)	1(0.91)	1:55	0.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.61

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.61
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)0.63
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.63
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)0.64
Blacephalon0.81
Metagross0.85

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Lucario0.94
Dialga (Origin)0.95
Hisuian Zoroark0.95
Hoopa0.95
Gholdengo0.95
Kyurem (White)0.96

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

3. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

4. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

5. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

6. Metagross

Bullet Punch + Meteor Mash

See the full ranked counter list for Flutter Mane · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.