Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Flapple's top six counters needs 1.85 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.49 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 8:31. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 35.

Flapple · Elite

grassdragon

Weak to

iceflyingpoisonbugdragonfairy

Boss CP: 40,836
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Flapple at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.80)	4(3.53)	4(3.92)	16:14	6.0
Level 25	3(2.05)	3(2.60)	4(3.26)	11:57	6.0
Level 30	2(1.60)	3(2.10)	3(2.81)	9:40	6.0
Level 35	2(1.51)	2(1.96)	3(2.63)	9:01	5.9
Level 40	2(1.44)	2(1.85)	3(2.49)	8:31	5.9
Level 45	2(1.39)	2(1.79)	3(2.39)	8:13	5.9
Level 50	2(1.34)	2(1.71)	3(2.31)	7:51	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)1.44

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)1.44
Kyurem (Black)1.55
Eternatus1.91
Baxcalibur2.03
Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)2.06
Mamoswine2.11

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Jynx2.42
Aurorus2.43
Vanilluxe2.45
Mr. Rime2.45
Palkia (Origin)2.47
Salamence2.47

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

3. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

4. Baxcalibur

Ice Fang + Avalanche

5. Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)

Ice Fang + Avalanche

6. Mamoswine

Powder Snow + Avalanche

See the full ranked counter list for Flapple · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.