Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Elgyem's top six counters needs 1.99 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.24 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:09. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 40.

Elgyem · Elite

psychic

Weak to

bugghostdark

Boss CP: 24,720
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Elgyem at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.45)	3(2.92)	4(3.22)	13:28	6.0
Level 25	3(2.04)	3(2.45)	3(2.78)	11:16	5.9
Level 30	2(1.83)	3(2.17)	3(2.46)	9:58	5.7
Level 35	2(1.75)	3(2.08)	3(2.34)	9:33	5.6
Level 40	2(1.67)	2(1.99)	3(2.24)	9:09	5.5
Level 45	2(1.62)	2(1.91)	3(2.16)	8:47	5.3
Level 50	2(1.51)	2(1.84)	3(2.09)	8:29	5.1

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.67

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.67
Darkrai1.89
Blacephalon2.08
Absol2.07
Lunala2.11
Hydreigon2.11

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Hoopa (Unbound)2.20
Weavile2.21
Zoroark2.21
Kingambit2.21
Chandelure2.21
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.26

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

3. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

4. Absol

Snarl + Brutal Swing

5. Lunala

Shadow Claw + Shadow Ball

6. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

See the full ranked counter list for Elgyem · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.