Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Drednaw's top six counters needs 2.01 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.48 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:16. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 45.

Drednaw · Elite

waterrock

Weak to

grassfightinggroundelectric

Boss CP: 43,139
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Drednaw at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.65)	3(2.90)	4(3.63)	13:21	6.0
Level 25	3(2.27)	3(2.51)	4(3.07)	11:32	6.0
Level 30	2(1.99)	3(2.22)	3(2.72)	10:13	6.0
Level 35	2(1.90)	3(2.11)	3(2.59)	9:44	6.0
Level 40	2(1.82)	3(2.01)	3(2.48)	9:16	6.0
Level 45	2(1.73)	2(1.94)	3(2.37)	8:56	5.9
Level 50	2(1.67)	2(1.87)	3(2.30)	8:37	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.82

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.82
Shaymin (Sky)1.95
Zarude2.03
Rillaboom2.06
Xurkitree2.12
Meowscarada2.12

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Tangrowth2.35
Sceptile2.34
Shaymin (Land)2.36
Venusaur2.36
Torterra2.45
Simisage2.44

The party these numbers assume

1. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

2. Shaymin (Sky)

Magical Leaf + Grass Knot

3. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

4. Rillaboom

Razor Leaf + Frenzy Plant

5. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Power Whip

6. Meowscarada

Leafage + Frenzy Plant

See the full ranked counter list for Drednaw · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.