Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Dragonite's top six counters needs 1.19 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.59 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 5:32. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 20.

Mega Dragonite · Mega

dragonflying

Weak to

icerockdragonfairy

Boss CP: 48,947
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Dragonite at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.50)	2(1.93)	3(2.44)	8:58	6.0
Level 25	2(1.19)	2(1.61)	3(2.06)	7:29	6.0
Level 30	1(0.99)	2(1.33)	2(1.79)	6:11	6.0
Level 35	1(0.95)	2(1.26)	2(1.67)	5:51	6.0
Level 40	1(0.91)	2(1.19)	2(1.59)	5:32	6.0
Level 45	1(0.88)	2(1.12)	2(1.51)	5:14	6.0
Level 50	1(0.85)	2(1.08)	2(1.46)	5:01	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Kyurem (White)0.91

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)0.91
Kyurem (Black)1.00
Eternatus1.21
Baxcalibur1.32
Mamoswine1.32
Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)1.39

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Aurorus1.51
Mr. Rime1.53
Mewtwo1.54
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.54
Avalugg1.53
Articuno1.60

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

3. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

4. Baxcalibur

Ice Fang + Avalanche

5. Mamoswine

Powder Snow + Avalanche

6. Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)

Ice Fang + Avalanche

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Dragonite · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.