Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Deoxys (Speed)'s top six counters needs 3.94 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.55 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 18:08. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Deoxys (Speed) · Elite

psychic

Weak to

bugghostdark

Boss CP: 52,888
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Deoxys (Speed) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.62)	6(5.93)	7(6.88)	27:17	6.0
Level 25	4(3.93)	5(4.97)	6(5.83)	22:52	6.0
Level 30	4(3.50)	5(4.41)	6(5.06)	20:16	5.9
Level 35	4(3.38)	5(4.08)	5(4.79)	18:46	5.8
Level 40	4(3.19)	4(3.94)	5(4.55)	18:08	5.7
Level 45	4(3.05)	4(3.82)	5(4.42)	17:34	5.6
Level 50	3(2.92)	4(3.72)	5(4.25)	17:07	5.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.19

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.19
Darkrai4.02
Lunala4.07
Kyurem (Black)4.10
Blacephalon4.16
Hydreigon4.11

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Absol4.42
Giratina (Origin)4.46
Kingambit4.48
Hoopa4.49
Chandelure4.50
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)4.54

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

3. Lunala

Shadow Claw + Shadow Ball

4. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

5. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

6. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

See the full ranked counter list for Deoxys (Speed) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.