Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Darmanitan (Standard)'s top six counters needs 2.48 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.87 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 11:26. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Darmanitan (Standard) · Elite

fire

Weak to

groundrockwater

Boss CP: 44,653
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Darmanitan (Standard) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.98)	5(4.46)	5(4.85)	20:32	6.0
Level 25	4(3.00)	4(3.54)	4(3.89)	16:18	6.0
Level 30	3(2.64)	3(2.94)	4(3.26)	13:31	6.0
Level 35	3(2.51)	3(2.68)	4(3.05)	12:19	6.0
Level 40	3(2.40)	3(2.48)	3(2.87)	11:26	6.0
Level 45	3(2.35)	3(2.37)	3(2.77)	10:54	6.0
Level 50	3(2.25)	3(2.28)	3(2.65)	10:28	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Kyogre2.40

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Kyogre2.40
Eternatus2.42
Quaquaval2.50
Glimmora2.50
Groudon2.50
Landorus (Therian)2.59

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Swampert2.75
Samurott2.76
Kingler2.79
Clawitzer2.83
Feraligatr2.83
Keldeo2.83

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

2. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

3. Quaquaval

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

4. Glimmora

Rock Throw + Meteor Beam

5. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

6. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

See the full ranked counter list for Darmanitan (Standard) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.