Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Clefable's top six counters needs 2.77 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.76 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 12:52. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Clefable · Primal

fairyflying

Weak to

poisonrocksteelelectricice

Boss CP: 59,626
Boss HP: 22,500
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Clefable at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.49)	5(4.45)	6(5.77)	20:41	6.0
Level 25	3(2.96)	4(3.64)	5(4.79)	16:56	6.0
Level 30	3(2.61)	4(3.05)	5(4.19)	14:11	6.0
Level 35	3(2.52)	3(2.89)	4(3.91)	13:27	6.0
Level 40	3(2.33)	3(2.77)	4(3.76)	12:52	6.0
Level 45	3(2.24)	3(2.65)	4(3.61)	12:19	5.9
Level 50	3(2.19)	3(2.55)	4(3.50)	11:50	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.33

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.33
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.45
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.46
Kyurem (White)2.85
Regieleki3.22
Eternatus3.30

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.54
Nihilego3.72
Melmetal3.73
Tinkaton3.74
Glimmora3.76
Naganadel3.77

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

5. Regieleki

Lock-On + Thunder Cage

6. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Clefable · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.