Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Cinderace's top six counters needs 1.93 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.22 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 8:52. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 40.

Cinderace · Tier 5

fire

Weak to

groundrockwater

Boss CP: 41,340
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Cinderace at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.09)	3(2.96)	4(3.37)	13:38	6.0
Level 25	3(2.51)	3(2.44)	3(2.79)	11:15	6.0
Level 30	2(1.99)	3(2.15)	3(2.49)	9:53	6.0
Level 35	2(1.86)	3(2.02)	3(2.33)	9:17	6.0
Level 40	2(1.80)	2(1.93)	3(2.22)	8:52	6.0
Level 45	2(1.80)	2(1.87)	3(2.13)	8:37	5.9
Level 50	2(1.73)	2(1.80)	3(2.06)	8:16	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Landorus (Therian)1.80

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Landorus (Therian)1.80
Inteleon1.85
Kyogre1.93
Groudon1.95
Eternatus1.99
Glimmora2.03

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Garchomp2.15
Tyrantrum2.14
Rampardos2.15
Terrakion2.15
Swampert2.17
Landorus (Incarnate)2.23

The party these numbers assume

1. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

2. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

3. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

4. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

5. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

6. Glimmora

Rock Throw + Meteor Beam

See the full ranked counter list for Cinderace · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.