Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Chandelure's top six counters needs 1.58 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.78 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:19. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Mega Chandelure · Mega

ghostfire

Weak to

groundrockghostwaterdark

Boss CP: 51,653
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Chandelure at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.12)	3(2.38)	3(2.86)	11:05	6.0
Level 25	2(1.87)	2(1.92)	3(2.36)	8:55	6.0
Level 30	2(1.70)	2(1.75)	2(2.00)	8:07	6.0
Level 35	2(1.56)	2(1.65)	2(1.89)	7:41	6.0
Level 40	2(1.51)	2(1.58)	2(1.78)	7:19	6.0
Level 45	2(1.49)	2(1.53)	2(1.72)	7:06	6.0
Level 50	2(1.37)	2(1.46)	2(1.64)	6:47	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.51

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.51
Hydreigon1.55
Tyranitar1.59
Darkrai1.59
Eternatus1.60
Landorus (Therian)1.61

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Giratina (Origin)1.71
Garchomp1.74
Hisuian Samurott1.75
Incineroar1.77
Salamence1.77
Terrakion1.79

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

3. Tyranitar

Bite + Brutal Swing

4. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

5. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

6. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Chandelure · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.