Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Ceruledge's top six counters needs 3.57 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.00 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 16:26. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Ceruledge · Elite

fireghost

Weak to

groundrockghostwaterdark

Boss CP: 51,305
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Ceruledge at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	6(5.59)	6(5.45)	6(5.90)	25:04	6.0
Level 25	5(4.98)	5(4.62)	5(4.96)	21:14	6.0
Level 30	4(3.90)	4(4.00)	5(4.46)	18:23	6.0
Level 35	4(3.70)	4(3.80)	5(4.21)	17:28	6.0
Level 40	4(3.45)	4(3.57)	4(4.00)	16:26	6.0
Level 45	4(3.42)	4(3.50)	4(3.88)	16:07	6.0
Level 50	4(3.34)	4(3.40)	4(3.70)	15:38	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Landorus (Therian)3.45

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Landorus (Therian)3.45
Inteleon3.52
Hydreigon3.59
Tyranitar3.60
Darkrai3.61
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.66

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Quaquaval3.87
Greninja3.90
Primarina3.93
Giratina (Origin)3.95
Garchomp3.93
Lunala4.05

The party these numbers assume

1. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

2. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

3. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

4. Tyranitar

Bite + Brutal Swing

5. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

6. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

See the full ranked counter list for Ceruledge · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.