Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Ceruledge's top six counters needs 0.70 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.79 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 2:03. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 25. A duo works from level 20.

Ceruledge · Tier 3

fireghost

Weak to

groundrockghostwaterdark

Boss CP: 21,767
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Ceruledge at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.00)	2(1.05)	2(1.16)	3:05	5.9
Level 25	1(0.84)	1(0.90)	1(1.00)	2:37	5.4
Level 30	1(0.73)	1(0.80)	1(0.89)	2:21	4.6
Level 35	1(0.62)	1(0.76)	1(0.84)	2:13	4.2
Level 40	1(0.60)	1(0.70)	1(0.79)	2:03	3.6
Level 45	1(0.56)	1(0.68)	1(0.77)	1:59	3.3
Level 50	1(0.54)	1(0.66)	1(0.74)	1:56	3.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.60

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.60
Landorus (Therian)0.68
Inteleon0.70
Darkrai0.73
Tyranitar0.74
Hydreigon0.75

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Quaquaval0.78
Greninja0.77
Dragapult0.79
Chandelure0.79
Primarina0.79
Blacephalon0.78

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

3. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

4. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

5. Tyranitar

Bite + Brutal Swing

6. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

See the full ranked counter list for Ceruledge · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.