Group size estimator
How many trainers do I need to invite?
Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared
- Boss CP
- 41,335
- Boss HP
- 15,000
- Raid timer
- 300s
- Party used
- 6
Trainers needed, by attacker level
Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.
| Attacker level | Six of the best counter | A prepared party | A mixed local group | Prepared solo time | Faints per timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 20 | 3(2.45) | 3(2.47) | 4(3.00) | 11:22 | 6.0 |
| Level 25 | 3(2.06) | 3(2.12) | 3(2.52) | 9:46 | 6.0 |
| Level 30 | 2(1.86) | 2(1.92) | 3(2.18) | 8:49 | 6.0 |
| Level 35 | 2(1.74) | 2(1.78) | 3(2.07) | 8:11 | 6.0 |
| Level 40 | 2(1.67) | 2(1.72) | 2(1.98) | 7:54 | 5.9 |
| Level 45 | 2(1.64) | 2(1.68) | 2(1.88) | 7:43 | 5.9 |
| Level 50 | 2(1.54) | 2(1.61) | 2(1.82) | 7:25 | 5.9 |
Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.
Six of the best counter
Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.
2 trainers at level 40
- Volcarona1.67
A prepared party
Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.
2 trainers at level 40
- Volcarona1.67
- Kartana1.74
- Genesect1.72
- Genesect (Burn)1.72
- Genesect (Chill)1.72
- Genesect (Douse)1.72
A mixed local group
Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.
2 trainers at level 40
- Escavalier1.90
- Yanmega1.92
- Pheromosa1.99
- Pinsir1.95
- Centiskorch1.94
- Blacephalon1.97
The party these numbers assume
See the full ranked counter list for Celebi · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six
How this is worked out
The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.