Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Carracosta's top six counters needs 1.42 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.73 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 6:32. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Carracosta · Tier 5

waterrock

Weak to

grassfightinggroundelectric

Boss CP: 36,913
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Carracosta at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.76)	3(2.00)	3(2.46)	9:13	6.0
Level 25	2(1.56)	2(1.74)	3(2.12)	8:00	6.0
Level 30	2(1.38)	2(1.56)	2(1.91)	7:10	6.0
Level 35	2(1.32)	2(1.47)	2(1.81)	6:47	6.0
Level 40	2(1.26)	2(1.42)	2(1.73)	6:32	5.9
Level 45	2(1.22)	2(1.37)	2(1.67)	6:18	5.9
Level 50	2(1.18)	2(1.32)	2(1.62)	6:06	5.8

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.26

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.26
Shaymin (Sky)1.38
Zarude1.43
Xurkitree1.45
Rillaboom1.47
Meowscarada1.53

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Sceptile1.62
Venusaur1.62
Shaymin (Land)1.66
Tangrowth1.68
Keldeo1.70
Torterra1.71

The party these numbers assume

1. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

2. Shaymin (Sky)

Magical Leaf + Grass Knot

3. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

4. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Power Whip

5. Rillaboom

Razor Leaf + Frenzy Plant

6. Meowscarada

Leafage + Frenzy Plant

See the full ranked counter list for Carracosta · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.