Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Calyrex (Shadow Rider)'s top six counters needs 1.45 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.71 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 6:41. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Calyrex (Shadow Rider) · Tier 5

psychicghost

Weak to

ghostdark

Boss CP: 60,023
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Calyrex (Shadow Rider) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.94)	3(2.16)	3(2.55)	9:57	6.0
Level 25	2(1.67)	2(1.81)	3(2.13)	8:20	6.0
Level 30	2(1.51)	2(1.60)	2(1.89)	7:21	5.9
Level 35	2(1.42)	2(1.52)	2(1.80)	6:58	5.9
Level 40	2(1.34)	2(1.45)	2(1.71)	6:41	5.8
Level 45	2(1.30)	2(1.39)	2(1.64)	6:24	5.7
Level 50	2(1.26)	2(1.35)	2(1.58)	6:14	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Darkrai1.34

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Darkrai1.34
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.42
Hydreigon1.44
Tyranitar1.48
Absol1.50
Kingambit1.53

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Salamence1.61
Weavile1.62
Guzzlord1.66
Zarude1.69
Houndoom1.71
Blacephalon1.72

The party these numbers assume

1. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

2. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

3. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

4. Tyranitar

Bite + Brutal Swing

5. Absol

Snarl + Brutal Swing

6. Kingambit

Snarl + Foul Play

See the full ranked counter list for Calyrex (Shadow Rider) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.