Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Calyrex (Shadow Rider)'s top six counters needs 0.07 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.07 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 0:12. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Calyrex (Shadow Rider) · Tier 1

psychicghost

Weak to

ghostdark

Boss CP: 12,004
Boss HP: 600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Calyrex (Shadow Rider) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.11)	1(0.10)	1(0.12)	0:18	0.3
Level 25	1(0.06)	1(0.08)	1(0.10)	0:14	0.1
Level 30	1(0.05)	1(0.07)	1(0.09)	0:13	0.0
Level 35	1(0.05)	1(0.07)	1(0.08)	0:12	0.0
Level 40	1(0.06)	1(0.07)	1(0.07)	0:12	0.0
Level 45	1(0.06)	1(0.06)	1(0.07)	0:12	0.0
Level 50	1(0.06)	1(0.06)	1(0.07)	0:11	0.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.06

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.06
Darkrai0.06
Hydreigon0.07
Giratina (Origin)0.07
Absol0.07
Tyranitar0.07

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Cursola0.07
Polteageist0.07
Hisuian Typhlosion0.07
Hisuian Zoroark0.07
Yveltal0.07
Hoopa (Unbound)0.07

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

3. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

4. Giratina (Origin)

Shadow Claw + Shadow Force

5. Absol

Snarl + Brutal Swing

6. Tyranitar

Bite + Brutal Swing

See the full ranked counter list for Calyrex (Shadow Rider) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.