Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Calyrex (Ice Rider)'s top six counters needs 2.12 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.93 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:45. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 50.

Calyrex (Ice Rider) · Tier 5

psychicice

Weak to

rockbugghoststeelfiredark

Boss CP: 55,995
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Calyrex (Ice Rider) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.73)	4(3.12)	5(4.29)	14:21	6.0
Level 25	3(2.32)	3(2.74)	4(3.64)	12:37	6.0
Level 30	2(1.99)	3(2.35)	4(3.25)	10:49	6.0
Level 35	2(1.95)	3(2.21)	4(3.08)	10:11	5.9
Level 40	2(1.88)	3(2.12)	3(2.93)	9:45	5.8
Level 45	2(1.87)	3(2.04)	3(2.82)	9:24	5.8
Level 50	2(1.73)	2(1.97)	3(2.75)	9:04	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.88

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.88
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.92
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.93
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.09
Blacephalon2.40
Metagross2.48

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Volcarona2.84
Lunala2.85
Cinderace2.88
Dialga2.94
Tyranitar2.94
Hydreigon2.94

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

3. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

4. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Metal Claw + Moongeist Beam

5. Blacephalon

Astonish + Mind Blown

6. Metagross

Fury Cutter + Meteor Mash

See the full ranked counter list for Calyrex (Ice Rider) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.