Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Butterfree's top six counters needs 0.06 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.07 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 0:10. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Butterfree · Tier 1

bugflying

Weak to

rockflyingfireelectricice

Boss CP: 5,496
Boss HP: 600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Butterfree at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.07)	1(0.09)	1(0.09)	0:16	0.2
Level 25	1(0.06)	1(0.08)	1(0.08)	0:14	0.1
Level 30	1(0.05)	1(0.07)	1(0.07)	0:12	0.0
Level 35	1(0.05)	1(0.06)	1(0.07)	0:11	0.0
Level 40	1(0.05)	1(0.06)	1(0.07)	0:10	0.0
Level 45	1(0.05)	1(0.06)	1(0.07)	0:10	0.0
Level 50	1(0.05)	1(0.06)	1(0.07)	0:10	0.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Rampardos0.05

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Rampardos0.05
Terrakion0.05
Glimmora0.06
Regieleki0.06
Rhyperior0.06
Kyurem (White)0.06

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Omastar0.07
Kyurem (Black)0.07
Archeops0.07
Kleavor0.07
Reshiram0.07
Crustle0.07

The party these numbers assume

1. Rampardos

Smack Down + Rock Slide

2. Terrakion

Smack Down + Rock Slide

3. Glimmora

Rock Throw + Power Gem

4. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

5. Rhyperior

Smack Down + Rock Wrecker

6. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ancient Power

See the full ranked counter list for Butterfree · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.