Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Beedrill's top six counters needs 0.92 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.08 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 4:16. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 35. A duo works from level 20.

Mega Beedrill · Mega

bugpoison

Weak to

flyingrockfirepsychic

Boss CP: 38,516
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Beedrill at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.47)	2(1.37)	2(1.64)	6:23	6.0
Level 25	2(1.13)	2(1.15)	2(1.39)	5:22	6.0
Level 30	1(0.97)	2(1.02)	2(1.20)	4:44	6.0
Level 35	1(0.91)	1(0.97)	2(1.13)	4:31	5.9
Level 40	1(0.87)	1(0.92)	2(1.08)	4:16	5.9
Level 45	1(0.82)	1(0.88)	2(1.04)	4:05	5.9
Level 50	1(0.76)	1(0.84)	2(1.00)	3:55	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Blacephalon0.87

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Blacephalon0.87
Rayquaza0.88
Mewtwo0.91
Reshiram0.94
Salamence0.96
Moltres0.96

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Lunala1.05
Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.06
Enamorus (Therian)1.06
Eternatus1.07
Cinderace1.06
Victini1.09

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

3. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

4. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

5. Salamence

Fire Fang + Fly

6. Moltres

Fire Spin + Fly

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Beedrill · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.