Group size estimator
How many trainers do I need to invite?
Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared
- Boss CP
- 21,877
- Boss HP
- 15,000
- Raid timer
- 300s
- Party used
- 6
Trainers needed, by attacker level
Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.
| Attacker level | Six of the best counter | A prepared party | A mixed local group | Prepared solo time | Faints per timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 20 | 4(3.41) | 4(3.69) | 5(4.48) | 17:26 | 5.9 |
| Level 25 | 4(3.02) | 4(3.18) | 4(3.98) | 15:02 | 5.6 |
| Level 30 | 3(2.68) | 3(2.86) | 4(3.56) | 13:32 | 5.3 |
| Level 35 | 3(2.59) | 3(2.73) | 4(3.40) | 12:54 | 5.0 |
| Level 40 | 3(2.46) | 3(2.62) | 4(3.18) | 12:22 | 4.9 |
| Level 45 | 3(2.42) | 3(2.50) | 4(3.10) | 11:50 | 4.6 |
| Level 50 | 3(2.33) | 3(2.44) | 4(3.03) | 11:33 | 4.5 |
Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.
Six of the best counter
Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.
3 trainers at level 40
- Kyurem (White)2.46
A prepared party
Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.
3 trainers at level 40
- Kyurem (White)2.46
- Blacephalon2.50
- Rayquaza2.52
- Eternatus2.65
- Reshiram2.79
- Kyurem (Black)2.80
A mixed local group
Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.
4 trainers at level 40
- Galarian Articuno3.09
- Cinderace3.11
- Naganadel3.13
- Volcarona3.12
- Heatran3.18
- Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.19
The party these numbers assume
See the full ranked counter list for Bayleef · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six
How this is worked out
The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.