Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Baltoy's top six counters needs 0.86 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.05 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 2:31. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 30. A duo works from level 20.

Baltoy · Shadow Tier 3

groundpsychic

Weak to

bugghostwatergrassicedark

Boss CP: 6,860
Boss HP: 4,000
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Baltoy at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.04)	2(1.19)	2(1.45)	3:28	4.7
Level 25	1(0.90)	2(1.03)	2(1.28)	3:01	3.7
Level 30	1(0.84)	1(0.94)	2(1.15)	2:45	2.9
Level 35	1(0.83)	1(0.90)	2(1.10)	2:38	2.6
Level 40	1(0.76)	1(0.86)	2(1.05)	2:31	2.3
Level 45	1(0.76)	1(0.85)	2(1.02)	2:29	2.2
Level 50	1(0.73)	1(0.80)	1(0.99)	2:21	1.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.76

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.76
Kyurem (White)0.80
Kyurem (Black)0.82
Kartana0.88
Darkrai0.96
Blacephalon0.95

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Quaquaval1.04
Meowscarada1.05
Dragapult1.05
Sceptile1.05
Hydreigon1.05
Lunala1.06

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

3. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

4. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

5. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

6. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

See the full ranked counter list for Baltoy · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.