Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Baltoy's top six counters needs 2.06 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.53 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:30. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 45.

Baltoy · Elite

groundpsychic

Weak to

bugghostwatergrassicedark

Boss CP: 15,339
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Baltoy at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.55)	3(2.94)	4(3.50)	13:30	5.8
Level 25	3(2.20)	3(2.51)	4(3.07)	11:33	5.7
Level 30	3(2.07)	3(2.28)	3(2.76)	10:29	5.4
Level 35	2(1.90)	3(2.16)	3(2.65)	9:55	5.2
Level 40	2(1.84)	3(2.06)	3(2.53)	9:30	4.9
Level 45	2(1.74)	2(1.99)	3(2.45)	9:10	4.8
Level 50	2(1.71)	2(1.94)	3(2.38)	8:55	4.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.84

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.84
Kyurem (Black)1.90
Kyurem (White)1.92
Kartana2.12
Darkrai2.29
Blacephalon2.32

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Chandelure2.49
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.49
Absol2.51
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.52
Rillaboom2.53
Lunala2.53

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

3. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

4. Kartana

Fury Cutter + Leaf Blade

5. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

6. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

See the full ranked counter list for Baltoy · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.