Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Avalugg's top six counters needs 3.48 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.74 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 16:01. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Avalugg · Elite

ice

Weak to

fightingrocksteelfire

Boss CP: 47,650
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Avalugg at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.67)	6(5.14)	7(6.96)	23:38	6.0
Level 25	4(3.98)	5(4.45)	6(5.86)	20:28	6.0
Level 30	4(3.38)	4(3.86)	6(5.21)	17:46	5.9
Level 35	4(3.08)	4(3.60)	5(4.93)	16:35	5.8
Level 40	4(3.02)	4(3.48)	5(4.74)	16:01	5.7
Level 45	3(2.97)	4(3.42)	5(4.57)	15:43	5.6
Level 50	3(2.89)	4(3.25)	5(4.37)	14:56	5.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.02

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.02
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.14
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)3.20
Keldeo3.43
Terrakion4.03
Reshiram4.08

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Blaziken4.49
Urshifu (Single Strike)4.64
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)4.72
Urshifu (Rapid Strike)4.66
Eternatus4.71
Dialga4.72

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

5. Terrakion

Double Kick + Sacred Sword

6. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

See the full ranked counter list for Avalugg · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.