Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Avalugg's top six counters needs 2.10 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.78 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:40. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 50.

Avalugg · Tier 5

ice

Weak to

fightingrocksteelfire

Boss CP: 41,266
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Avalugg at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.82)	4(3.11)	5(4.20)	14:19	6.0
Level 25	3(2.20)	3(2.55)	4(3.53)	11:43	5.9
Level 30	2(1.97)	3(2.29)	4(3.11)	10:31	5.6
Level 35	2(1.91)	3(2.20)	3(2.94)	10:09	5.4
Level 40	2(1.86)	3(2.10)	3(2.78)	9:40	5.3
Level 45	2(1.74)	3(2.02)	3(2.71)	9:19	5.2
Level 50	2(1.70)	2(1.93)	3(2.61)	8:53	5.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.86

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.86
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.90
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.93
Keldeo2.05
Reshiram2.43
Terrakion2.44

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Heatran2.70
Urshifu (Single Strike)2.71
Cinderace2.70
Urshifu (Rapid Strike)2.72
Volcarona2.75
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.76

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

5. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

6. Terrakion

Double Kick + Sacred Sword

See the full ranked counter list for Avalugg · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.