Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 6 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Audino's top six counters needs 3.69 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 5.02 (round up: 6). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 16:59. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Audino · Super Mega

normalfairy

Weak to

poisonsteel

Boss CP: 40,822
Boss HP: 25,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Audino at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.23)	6(5.16)	8(7.04)	23:46	5.9
Level 25	4(3.61)	5(4.46)	7(6.07)	20:33	5.6
Level 30	4(3.36)	5(4.00)	6(5.55)	18:25	5.2
Level 35	4(3.25)	4(3.89)	6(5.35)	17:53	5.0
Level 40	3(3.00)	4(3.69)	6(5.02)	16:59	4.8
Level 45	3(2.93)	4(3.58)	5(4.84)	16:28	4.6
Level 50	3(2.86)	4(3.46)	5(4.72)	15:55	4.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.00

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.00
Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.01
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)3.12
Eternatus4.13
Metagross4.23
Tinkaton4.66

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

6 trainers at level 40

Genesect4.84
Genesect (Burn)4.84
Genesect (Chill)4.84
Genesect (Douse)4.84
Genesect (Shock)4.84
Keldeo4.87

The party these numbers assume

1. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

2. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

5. Metagross

Bullet Punch + Meteor Mash

6. Tinkaton

Fairy Wind + Gigaton Hammer

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Audino · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.