Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Galarian Articuno's top six counters needs 3.39 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.16 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 15:36. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Galarian Articuno · Elite

psychicflying

Weak to

rockghostelectricicedark

Boss CP: 54,566
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Galarian Articuno at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	6(5.32)	6(5.87)	7(6.58)	27:01	6.0
Level 25	4(3.83)	5(4.46)	6(5.45)	20:30	6.0
Level 30	4(3.55)	4(3.93)	5(4.69)	18:04	6.0
Level 35	4(3.10)	4(3.63)	5(4.41)	16:42	6.0
Level 40	3(2.95)	4(3.39)	5(4.16)	15:36	6.0
Level 45	3(2.90)	4(3.24)	5(4.02)	14:54	6.0
Level 50	3(2.85)	4(3.13)	4(3.84)	14:24	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.95

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.95
Kyurem (White)3.10
Kyurem (Black)3.26
Xurkitree3.65
Regieleki3.66
Zekrom3.71

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)4.01
Hydreigon4.05
Kingambit4.09
Eternatus4.09
Gholdengo4.12
Zacian (Crowned Sword)4.16

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

3. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

4. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

5. Regieleki

Lock-On + Thunder Cage

6. Zekrom

Charge Beam + Fusion Bolt

See the full ranked counter list for Galarian Articuno · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.