Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Galarian Articuno's top six counters needs 0.66 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.83 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:57. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Galarian Articuno · Tier 3

psychicflying

Weak to

rockghostelectricicedark

Boss CP: 23,150
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Galarian Articuno at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.95)	1(1.00)	2(1.22)	2:56	6.0
Level 25	1(0.76)	1(0.85)	2(1.04)	2:30	5.7
Level 30	1(0.68)	1(0.75)	1(0.92)	2:12	5.1
Level 35	1(0.61)	1(0.69)	1(0.87)	2:01	4.6
Level 40	1(0.61)	1(0.66)	1(0.83)	1:57	4.1
Level 45	1(0.61)	1(0.64)	1(0.79)	1:52	3.8
Level 50	1(0.57)	1(0.60)	1(0.77)	1:46	3.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.61

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.61
Kyurem (White)0.61
Kyurem (Black)0.66
Regieleki0.68
Xurkitree0.72
Zeraora0.71

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Tyranitar0.80
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)0.81
Eternatus0.82
Raikou0.82
Giratina (Origin)0.81
Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.83

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

3. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

4. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

5. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

6. Zeraora

Volt Switch + Plasma Fists

See the full ranked counter list for Galarian Articuno · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.