Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Aron's top six counters needs 1.53 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.92 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:04. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Aron · Elite

steelrock

Weak to

fightinggroundwater

Boss CP: 24,022
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Aron at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.82)	3(2.15)	3(2.72)	9:54	6.0
Level 25	2(1.58)	2(1.85)	3(2.34)	8:30	6.0
Level 30	2(1.44)	2(1.67)	3(2.10)	7:42	5.7
Level 35	2(1.40)	2(1.60)	3(2.01)	7:21	5.5
Level 40	2(1.35)	2(1.53)	2(1.92)	7:04	5.3
Level 45	2(1.28)	2(1.49)	2(1.86)	6:50	5.1
Level 50	2(1.24)	2(1.43)	2(1.79)	6:34	5.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Keldeo1.35

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Keldeo1.35
Lucario1.47
Terrakion1.55
Landorus (Therian)1.56
Blaziken1.58
Groudon1.70

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Breloom1.84
Marshadow1.86
Gallade1.86
Garchomp1.90
Machamp1.91
Mamoswine1.92

The party these numbers assume

1. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

2. Lucario

Force Palm + Aura Sphere

3. Terrakion

Double Kick + Sacred Sword

4. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

5. Blaziken

Counter + Aura Sphere

6. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

See the full ranked counter list for Aron · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.